Long-Term, Schmong-Term: Commodities Going Higher in ‘11

By Matt Phillips

Earlier this week Dylan Grice gave us a rather sobering look at long-term trends in commodities, arguing that — over time — the trend for commodity prices has clearly been lower.

Today, Jan Loeys and his merry band of cross asset watchers at J.P. Morgan Global Asset Allocation say they’re staying long commodities in 2011:

We project a 17% total return for the GSCI index over the next 12 months. A number of key commodity forward curves are now exhibiting backwardation, including oil and copper which together account for 55% of the GSCI index. Coupled with our view that tight global supply and strong EM-led demand will?push spot prices above current forwards, this makes a very bullish case for commodity investors next year … Within commodities, we recommend being long those where supply is tight and demand is driven predominantly by EM. Crude oil, copper, and agricultural commodities like grains and sugar are all expected to see an increase in EM-led demand next year. We expect this to push prices above forwards in order to?balance an increasingly tight supply picture. We are also long gold which should continue to benefit from strong investor flows and any uncertainty in the Euro area or globally.

For the record, the S&P GSCI index tracks 24 commodity prices. It’s one of the most heavily followed commodities indexes.

This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service — if this is your content and you're reading it on someone else's site, please read our FAQ page at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php
Five Filters featured site: So, Why is Wikileaks a Good Thing Again?.

View the original article here

Treasurys Trading Higher in London

By Dave Kansas

U.S. Treasurys are trading higher in London, a rare respite from the recent sell-off. In theory, Treasurys are benefiting from the decision by Moody’s to put Spain’s credit rating under review.

But if that’s the case, the rally may be short lived. Spain credit insurance costs are little changed and the euro is off modestly against the dollar. As market data firm Markit says in a morning note: “Spain has been trading with an inferior market-implied rating for some time.”

The 10-year Treasury bond yield is 3.409% and the 2-year Treasury note yield is at 0.63%.

Coming up in the U.S. today on the economic front:

• Consumer Price Index for November at 8:30 a.m. EST.
• Empire State (NY) regional manufacturing December survey at 8:30 a.m. EST.
• Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization readings for November at 9:15 a.m. EST.
• Mortgage Applications data at 7 a.m. EST.
• NAHB Housing Market Survey at 10 a.m. EST.

This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service — if this is your content and you're reading it on someone else's site, please read our FAQ page at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php
Five Filters featured site: So, Why is Wikileaks a Good Thing Again?.

View the original article here

Tech Resilience higher market main may

By Dave Kansas

Technology shares are bucking the trend oriented QE2 time of opening of trade, which can augured well for the whole of the market.

The Nasdaq composite stuffed-tech is just into positive territory while blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is a time more severe, even though it bounced off the coast of its bottom. Fears about pre-open connection QE2 were exaggerated.

After a sea of Red hosted the opening bell, various names technology have begun to move in the Green led chipmaker Broadcom.Le Telecom had a big third quarter and its shares are approximately 8%.Intel and Advanced Micro Micron are higher and the SOX chip index remained positive all morning, currently up to 1.5%.As Matt pointed out yesterday, a good SOX is good for everyone.

Akamai reports after closing and its actions are more than 3 %.Apple is having a battle to stay positive and is approximately $10 off the coast of his $318 peak pre-earnings part.Big, old tech (IRAP they hate being called!) is lower than with Microsoft, Cisco and IBM ill.

This entry transmitted via the service for full-text RSS - if this is your content and you read on someone to another site, please read our FAQ page fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php
Article five filters features: After Hiroshima - non-rapport Cancer Catastrophe of Fallujah.

View the original article here

Europe of higher rotation, technology is low

By Dave Kansas

European stocks push off the coast of lows, which might indicate that investors are anticipating a decent opening .but evil United States received Amazon earnings are weighing on the technology sector.

Some European optimism follows a strong out of the Germany Ifo report.Investigation Ifo measures Germany, business confidence and the October report such confidence to a maximum of 3 and one demi-an.

According to the report, Paris and Frankfurt scholarships are higher to near rentabilité.Les travel market in London in the Green, boosted by a slight rebound resources actions levels.

In Asia, AIG its IPO AIA at the top of his range of prices and increases the size of the agreement.The company expects to raise $ 20.6 billion to repay taxpayers, according to Dow Jones.

Among employees, KeyCorp, Honeywell and Schlumberger have all shown above.

Difficulty may loom techland.Amazon is significantly lower than indicated after a cool reception for winnings end investors jeudi.Les are worried about the rising costs of online retailer.

Among other technicians, Apple, IBM, and eBay are indicated slightly inférieure.Microsoft, Intel, Cisco has shown little change.

This entry transmitted via the service for full-text RSS - if this is your content and you read on someone to another site, please read our FAQ page fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php
Article five filters features: After Hiroshima - non-rapport Cancer Catastrophe of Fallujah.

View the original article here

Europe of higher rotation, technology is low

By Dave Kansas

European stocks push off the coast of lows, which might indicate that investors are anticipating a decent opening .but evil United States received Amazon earnings are weighing on the technology sector.

Some European optimism follows a strong out of the Germany Ifo report.Investigation Ifo measures Germany, business confidence and the October report such confidence to a maximum of 3 and one demi-an.

According to the report, Paris and Frankfurt scholarships are higher to near rentabilité.Les travel market in London in the Green, boosted by a slight rebound resources actions levels.

In Asia, AIG its IPO AIA at the top of his range of prices and increases the size of the agreement.The company expects to raise $ 20.6 billion to repay taxpayers, according to Dow Jones.

Among employees, KeyCorp, Honeywell and Schlumberger have all shown above.

Difficulty may loom techland.Amazon is significantly lower than indicated after a cool reception for winnings end investors jeudi.Les are worried about the rising costs of online retailer.

Among other technicians, Apple, IBM, and eBay are indicated slightly inférieure.Microsoft, Intel, Cisco has shown little change.

This entry transmitted via the service for full-text RSS - if this is your content and you read on someone to another site, please read our FAQ page fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php
Article five filters features: After Hiroshima - non-rapport Cancer Catastrophe of Fallujah.

View the original article here